Analysis: BTC Rebound Fails to Break Through "Phase Bull/Bear" Divide, Some Investors Shift Toward End of Trend View

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/10/22 14:15:52
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BlockBeats News, October 22nd, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that BTC's Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is considered the dividing line of a "phased bull market" or a bull/bear sentiment indicator. When the price touches STH-RP and quickly rebounds, it indicates that new investors not only did not consider selling near their cost basis but also attracted more buying interest, demonstrating market confidence in future trends.

Emotional shifts within a trend are typically divided into the following 3 stages:

Stage 1: BTC slightly falls below STH-RP and then experiences a sharp rebound. During this stage, investors have confidence in the trend, believing that short-term pullbacks are opportunities.

Stage 2: BTC significantly drops below STH-RP and then sees a modest rebound. At this point, investor confidence weakens, but some still believe the trend is not over.

Stage 3: BTC's rebound fails to surpass STH-RP. During this stage, investors uniformly doubt the trend. Once the rebound returns to the cost line, they tend to exit to seek safety.

From September 26th to 28th, BTC retraced to around $109,000 (slightly below STH-RP) and then strongly rebounded to $125,000 (a significant rebound), corresponding to Stage 1. On October 17th, the STH-RP price was $113,000. At this time, BTC retraced to around $104,000, which qualifies as a significant drop. Yesterday evening, the surge touched the STH-RP and then retreated. Analysts believe the market is currently in Stage 2 or transitioning from Stage 2 to Stage 3.

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DDC Enterprise Limited Announces 2025 Unaudited Preliminary Financial Performance: Record Revenue Achieved, Bitcoin Treasury Grows to 2183 Coins

On March 4, 2026, DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE American: DDC) today announced preliminary, unaudited full-year financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company expects to achieve record revenue and record positive adjusted EBITDA, primarily driven by continued growth in its core consumer food business and overall margin improvement. The final audited financial report is expected to be released in mid-April 2026.


2025 Full-Year Financial Highlights


Revenue: Expected to be between $39 million and $41 million, reaching a new company high.


Organic Growth: Excluding the impact of the company's strategic contraction of its U.S. operations, core revenue is expected to grow 11% to 17% year over year.


Gross Profit Margin: Expected to be between 28% and 30%, reflecting continued operational efficiency improvements.


Adjusted EBITDA: The company expects to achieve a positive full-year result in 2025, a significant improvement from a $3.5 million loss in 2024, mainly due to rigorous cost controls and a higher-margin sales mix.


Core Consumer Food Business Performance


In 2025, DDC's core consumer food business maintained strong operational performance.


The company also disclosed Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA, a metric that further excludes costs related to its Bitcoin reserve strategy and non-cash fair value adjustments related to its Bitcoin holdings from adjusted EBITDA to more accurately reflect the core business performance.


In 2025, Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $5.5 million and $6 million.


Bitcoin Reserve Update


In the first half of 2025, DDC initiated a long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy, holding Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset.


As of December 31, 2025: The company holds 1,183 BTC.


As of February 28, 2026: Holdings increased to 2,118 BTC


Today's additional purchase of 65 BTC brings the company's total holdings to 2,183 BTC


DDC Founder, Chairman, and CEO Norma Chu stated, "We are proud to have closed 2025 with record revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating the steady growth of the company's consumer food business and the ongoing improvement in profitability. We are building a disciplined, growth-oriented food platform and strategically allocating capital to Bitcoin assets with a long-term view, aligning with our core beliefs. We believe that this dual-track model of 'Steady Consumer Business + Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' will help DDC create lasting long-term value for shareholders."


Adjusted EBITDA Definition
For the full year 2025, the company defines "Adjusted EBITDA" (a non-GAAP financial measure) as: Net income / (loss) excluding the following items:· Interest expense· Taxes· Foreign exchange gains/losses· Long-lived asset impairment· Depreciation and amortization· Non-cash fair value changes related to financial instruments (including Bitcoin holdings)· Stock-based compensation


About DDC Enterprise Limited


DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE: DDC) is actively implementing its corporate Bitcoin Treasury strategy while continuing to strengthen its position as a leading global Asian food platform.


The company has established Bitcoin as a core reserve asset and is executing a prudent, long-oriented accumulation strategy. While expanding its portfolio of food brands, DDC is gradually becoming one of the public company pioneers in integrating Bitcoin into its corporate financial architecture.


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