Wholesale Dollar Surpasses $1,500 Mark, Doubts Grow Over Interest Rates

The wholesale dollar exceeds $1,500 this Monday, a level that has become a key reference for the market in recent weeks and that the Government seeks to maintain through a combination of currency operations and liquidity management.

The wholesale currency starts the week this Monday, August 24, at $1,506, with a daily increase of $7.00.

Last week, the exchange rate advanced $11.50, equivalent to 0.8%, and slightly recovered the $11 drop recorded during the previous week. In August, it has accumulated an increase of $18, while so far in 2026, it has risen by $48.

Despite everything, the dollar is still far from the formal limit set by the exchange scheme. The ceiling of the band was located on Friday at $1,868.54, meaning the wholesale dollar ended 24.7% below that.

In the market, however, $1,500 is seen as a sort of informal short-term ceiling. According to operators, the Government has been using various tools to prevent the wholesale dollar from consistently exceeding that zone, including operations in the futures market.

Economist Gustavo Ber pointed out that "the wholesale dollar continues to respect $1,500, and even at times reflects lower coverage through dollar-linked instruments and increased purchases by the BCRA, perhaps due to the activation of some renewed bets for placements in pesos.

Meanwhile, the retail dollar operates at $1,525 at Banco Nación, an increase of $10 compared to the previous session. Meanwhile, the blue dollar operates at $1,560. Financial rates also remain above the official rate, with the MEP around $1,537.03 (+0.1%) and the cash with settlement sold at $1,594.80, a marginal drop.

In the futures segment, contracts are trading with marginal increases. For December, market operators are negotiating a wholesale dollar at $1,624.

The exchange rate stability has a counterpart of increased tension in interest rates in pesos. Short-term rates have moved in recent days around 25%-27% TNA, in a market where liquidity management has taken on a central role.

The dilemma for the economic team is to maintain a sufficient amount of pesos to avoid an excessive jump in rates, but without generating a liquidity surplus that could lead to greater demand for dollars.

Ber warned that "it is crucial to evaluate the dynamics of rates, given that in the current model they have acted as a safety valve against a surge in currency demand and more restricted liquidity. Even so, it is urgent that they stabilize - after the nominal and real jump - in order not to affect activity and consumption."

The consulting firm 1816 also focused on this balance and considered that "the cost of maintaining the ceiling of 1,500 is high, which raises the question of how long the Government would like to sustain that level - we have no answer."

The firm recalled that during the last few days the Government has again used the interest rate as a tool to defend the exchange rate objective, a dynamic that has increased the volatility of funding costs.

"During these last days, the local market has experienced, albeit in small doses, what it went through in the second half of 2025: the Government has again used the interest rate tool to defend an exchange rate objective, and the funding cost has shown a volatility not seen since late February," stated 1816.

Another effect of the strategy is observed in the accumulation of reserves. After buying an average close to $103 million daily during July, the BCRA reduced the pace to approximately $33 million per day in August.

The lower buying presence seeks to prevent official demand from adding pressure on a quotation that is already operating very close to $1,500.

In this context, Max Capital suggested that greater exchange flexibility could help decompress the market. "Some price adjustment in light of perceived electoral risks seemed inevitable and, for the exchange rate, it likely implied a level closer to $1,550 per dollar," it noted.

The consulting firm added that this does not necessarily mean that the peso cannot appreciate again, as it expects that the trade balance and private flows will remain solid, although somewhat weaker than during the first half.

For Delphos Investment, there is also another element to follow: "demand for coverage has been growing since mid-April at the pace of BCRA purchases, which evidences the absence of genuine demand for pesos and suggests that a potential recomposition of liquidity could intensify exchange rate pressure."

Thus, $1,500 returns to the center of attention for the beginning of the new week. More than the formal ceiling of the exchange band, which remains distant, the market will closely follow to what extent the Government is willing to sustain that reference.