Bitcoin Bull Run: Arthur Hayes Sees Crypto Market Soaring Higher

*Arthur Hayes does not hold back in his new essay. For the co-founder of BitMEX, the bond buybacks announced by the U.S. Treasury mark the return of a policy favorable to global liquidity. Bitcoin, which has just surpassed $80,000, would be the first asset to have understood the message.
Key points from this article:

• Arthur Hayes stated that the next bull market has begun, supported by the U.S. Treasury's bond buybacks.
• Bitcoin has exceeded $80,000, reflecting an anticipation of greater market intervention.

In his essay Same Same But Different, Arthur Hayes compares Scott Bessent to Janet Yellen, his predecessor at the Treasury. According to him, both seek to prevent the yield on ten-year U.S. bonds from sustainably crossing the 5% threshold.
This level is particularly sensitive, as it influences mortgage rates, corporate bond yields, and many loans granted to households. A prolonged surge would increase financing costs and weigh on economic activity.
Arthur Hayes recalls that in 2023, Janet Yellen favored issuing short-term Treasury bills. Money market funds then shifted some of their liquidity placed in the Fed's reverse repo mechanism into these securities. The balance of the mechanism then dropped from about $2,500 billion to $100 billion, releasing what he sees as a powerful fuel for the markets.
Scott Bessent would today use a different method. On August 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double its buybacks of old bonds ranging from 10 to 30 years. Their cap will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9.
Officially, these buybacks serve to improve the liquidity of old bond issues. They do not constitute quantitative easing: the Fed does not directly create new reserves to finance the operations.
But Arthur Hayes sees it nonetheless as an indirect form of easing. By removing long bonds from the market and potentially replacing them with short-term securities, the Treasury would reduce pressure on yields while redistributing dollars to investors.
The announcement coincided with Bitcoin's awakening, which jumped from about $65,000 to over $80,000 in a few days. He nicknames BTC the fire alarm of global liquidity: according to him, its surge signals that traders are already anticipating greater intervention.
If long rates rise again, Scott Bessent could gradually amplify the buybacks, tapping into the Treasury General Account -- which has about $950 billion -- or effectively controlling the yield curve. This latter scenario, particularly favorable to Bitcoin, remains entirely hypothetical.
Convinced that the movement is just beginning, Arthur Hayes claims to have placed Maelstrom in maximum risk mode, with significant positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena, and Ether.fi. He warns, however, that the rise will likely be accompanied by violent corrections and advises against using leverage.
Arthur Hayes's thesis is clearly bullish, but it still relies on an interpretation: the expanded buybacks have not started and remain modest compared to the $40 trillion of U.S. debt. Bitcoin is thus betting less on the operations already announced than on those that Washington may be forced to launch in the coming weeks.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.