Wintermute: The Bear Market is Not Over, But the Next Rebound Could Be "Different This Time"

BlockBeats News, February 3rd, Wintermute released a new article stating that the Bitcoin price recently fell below the $80,000 mark for the first time since the April 2025 Trump tariff event. Over the weekend, the cumulative liquidation scale of the crypto market reached $2.55 billion, marking the tenth largest liquidation event in history.

The market generally believes that this round of decline was not triggered by a single negative factor, but was the result of the concentrated fermentation of multiple macro factors, including: the disappointing earnings reports of the Mag7 in the US stock market shaking the AI narrative, Kevin Warsh unexpectedly nominated as the Fed Chairman, and a sharp pullback in the precious metals market. In particular, silver once plummeted 26% intraday, triggering a CME circuit breaker, intensifying the overall risk-off sentiment in the market.

Analysis points out that after fluctuating in the $85,000 to $95,000 range for the past two months, BTC broke below this range, compounded by weekend illiquidity and high leverage positions, amplifying selling pressure. Currently, crypto assets are showing the weakest performance among risk assets, indicating that the market is still in a bear market phase and a price discovery stage.

However, institutions believe that unlike structural crises such as FTX and Luna, this round of adjustment is more driven by macro factors and positions, with no systemic risk contagion observed. If macro uncertainty eases in the second half of 2026 and the monetary policy path becomes clearer, market sentiment and fund focus are expected to recover relatively quickly.