US to Release August Non-Farm Payroll Report Tonight, Expected to Add 56,000 Jobs

The United States will release its August non-farm payroll report at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 56,000 jobs, following an unexpected decrease of 23,000 jobs in July. The economists' forecast range varies from a decrease of 25,000 to an increase of 121,000, indicating significant divergence in market expectations regarding labor conditions. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, with some economists predicting it could rise to 4.2%; the annualized wage growth rate may slow from 3.2% to 3%. Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, estimates that the removal of temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants could drag non-farm employment down by about 15,000 jobs, while a rebound in local government education, leisure, and hospitality employment may provide support. Most economists believe that unless there is a significant surprise in the non-farm data, the report is unlikely to directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision during its meeting on September 15-16, with market focus shifting to next week's CPI. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the upcoming data confirms a cooling of inflationary pressures, he is inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged this month. Currently, the market estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at 50%, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.

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