Trump Confirms US-Iran Dialogue, Hints at Possible Negotiation Path

On July 15, Trump confirmed that the US and Iran engaged in dialogue on Tuesday and urged Tehran to reach an agreement. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan noted that Trump's remarks indicate there will be no de-escalation in the short term, reinforcing that concerns over supply in the Strait of Hormuz have already been factored into the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil and diesel prices. Trump revealed that Iran's energy infrastructure has not yet been targeted, suggesting that Washington still retains the option to significantly escalate the situation, which may lead traders to continue pricing in tail risks to regional oil supply. At the same time, Trump's confirmation of dialogue with Tehran amid ongoing strikes sends mixed signals, hinting that even with sustained military pressure, a negotiation path may still exist. The market is likely to remain highly sensitive to any changes in wording regarding energy facility issues.

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