S&P 500 Earnings Growth Shifts to Semiconductor Industry, Contributing 48% in Q2

On July 22, The Kobeissi Letter reported that the share of technology stocks in the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index is at a historical high. In the first quarter of 2026, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft collectively contributed about 34% of the year-over-year earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 index, while semiconductor companies contributed 31%, and the remaining constituents contributed approximately 36%. Together, these two categories accounted for 65% of the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index in the first quarter, up from 52% in the same period of 2025. Looking ahead to the second quarter earnings season, the contribution of semiconductor companies to the S&P 500 index's earnings growth is expected to increase by 17 percentage points to a record 48%, while the contribution from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft is expected to decline by 25 percentage points to about 9%. The dominant force behind the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index is shifting from large tech platform companies to the semiconductor industry.

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