Polymarket News Reaction Rate at 15.2%, Variations by Source

The percentage of Polymarket-related contract prices that moved by more than one cent within one hour of news announcements was recorded at an average of 15.2%. This reflects the analysis that the reaction of prediction market prices varies depending on the source and topic. According to a study by Vera from CryptoBriefing, 618 news sources were examined over a period of 56 days until June 25, 2026, resulting in 476,000 article-market pairs. Only about one in six article-market pairs showed a price change above the benchmark within one hour. The reaction rate of major financial communications firms fell below the average of 15.2%, while some specialized sources exceeded the average. This indicates that prediction market prices do not respond to all public information at the same speed. By topic, some news items moved market prices 3 to 5 times more frequently than others, as measured by the frequency of price fluctuations. Polymarket is a prediction market trading on political, macroeconomic, sports, technology, and crypto issues, where prices are interpreted as the likelihood of events occurring as perceived by market participants. This study broadly analyzed the connection between news and market prices, measuring the frequency of price reactions.

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