Myriad Moves: Predictions on Strategy's Bitcoin, Fed Rate Cuts, Pope Conclave and More

The rise of prediction markets has given crypto participants a wide array of opportunities to test their knowledge of markets, politics, pop culture, and more. By using a prediction market like Myriad , users can follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process. What’s popping on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most interesting, active, and newsworthy markets right now, including current odds and helpful context. (Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.) Will Strategy (MSTR) purchase Bitcoin this week? Market Opened: April 29 Closes: May 5 Volume: $9.82K Over the last few years, it’s been difficult to keep Michael Saylor and his firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from the Bitcoin buy button, as the company has amassed a treasury with more than 2.6% of the total BTC supply. A new market on Myriad allows predictors to decide whether or not he and his firm will push it once more in the weeklong span ending May 5. So far, predictors are overwhelmingly in favor of “yes” with odds of 85.2% as of Thursday afternoon. Why might predictors feel so certain? Perhaps it’s because the firm rarely takes breaks from buying Bitcoin. Since the year began, Strategy has already announced 12 separate Bitcoin purchases, including earlier this week when it announced the addition of $1.4 billion worth to bring its total holdings to 553,555 BTC—more than $53 billion worth. Strategy also bought Bitcoin in each of the previous weeks and has only taken a handful of two-week breaks in between purchase disclosures so far this year. While Saylor’s firm has engaged in creative financing to create funds for Bitcoin purchases, as of April 27, the company was down to around $129 million of MSTR shares for issuance and sale. This puts it near the limit for one of its equity offering programs announced in October . However, the firm still maintains nearly $21 billion in available issuance for its STRK offering. So will Saylor and company purchase again in the coming week? Predictors think so, with only a 14.8% chance of the company not doing so, according to the latest Myriad flash market. What’s Next: Each of the last three Strategy purchases has been announced on a Monday. Will Monday, May 5 bring the same announcement? Will the Fed Apply Rate Cuts by the End of May 8? Market Opened: April 11 Closes: May 5 Volume: $23.9K Even though rate cut hopes appear to be rising , predictors on Myriad do not think the Federal Reserve will apply a rate cut by May 8. Thus far, odds on Myriad’s third-largest market by volume are nearly 90% in favor of “no,” marking around a 5% gain in those odds in the last seven days and closer to a 25% boost since the afternoon the market opened. President Trump has continued his campaign of criticism against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to cut rates and calling Powell “ Mr. Too Late” and a “major loser” in a post on Truth Social on April 21. Even so, predictors are undeterred. Odds on Polymarket’s prediction market display even greater certainty in no change to rates, holding to 96% as the Fed’s next FOMC rapidly approaches—nearly matching the probability data shared by CME Group’s FedWatch dashboard. Nevertheless, a high probability of multiple rate cuts this year still remains, though predictors are split on just how many, according to a market available on Polymarket. What’s Next: The market will close on May 5, just one day before the next FOMC meeting begins. Pope Election: "White Smoke" on the First Two Days of Conclave? Market Open: April 21 Closes: May 19 Volume: $16K Around 180 cardinals present in Rome agreed to start the conclave, or the papal election assembly, on May 7 to select the next pope. During the conclave, eligible cardinal electors will cast secret ballots to try and determine Pope Francis’ successor, needing a two-thirds majority to do so. If a two-thirds agreement is reached, then the next Pope is selected and the chimney above the Sistine Chapel produces “white smoke.” Should there not be an agreement, then it instead will emit black smoke. In other words, predictors in this market are attempting to determine whether or not the next pope will be decided in the first two days of secret ballots. But two days of voting doesn’t mean there will be just two votes. According to Vatican News , if voting begins in the afternoon of May 7, then there will be just one ballot. But if it continues into May 8, the second day of the conclave, then there will be four ballots in total —two each in the morning and afternoon. Predictors on Myriad are close to split about the cardinals’ ability to reach two-thirds majority in the first two days, with odds of “no” slightly edging out “yes” at 51.4% to 48.6%. But the odds have gotten tighter as the week has progressed, moving 7.8% in both directions during that time. While there is no definitive timetable for the conclave, if the cardinal electors are unable to reach a two-thirds majority after three days, then they are able to take a one-day break and conduct free discussion. The last two conclaves were concluded in two days , according to the BBC . What’s Next: The conclave will begin on May 7. Will Powell Leave the Fed Chair Before June? Market Open: April 22 Closes: May 31 Volume: $76.5K Myriad’s highest-volume prediction market magnifies Jerome Powell’s actions once more, this time asking if Powell will leave his Fed chair position before June. Sworn in for a second four-year term in May 2022 , Powell technically has another year left in the office, but this market resolves “yes” for any departure of the role, including firings—a topic President Trump has hinted at in posts on Truth Social. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!,” the President posted on April 17, once more referring to him as “Mr. Too Late” in the same post. But days later, Trump said he had no intention of firing Powell , and predictors appear to believe him. At present time, the market stands at 93.6% odds of “no” for Powell leaving before June, suggesting Trump will not be the first president to fire the Fed chair since the central bank became independent in 1951 . What’s Next: Powell will be front and center for the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 6-7. If the Fed holds rates steady, as predictors expect, then will Trump change his tune? Edited by Andrew Hayward