Key Points of the Fed Meeting - Vote to Reveal Divisions, Powell May Raise the Cut Threshold

BlockBeats News, December 11th, key points of the Federal Reserve meeting are as follows:

Policy Statement

1. Barclays Bank: It is expected that the statement will adopt a hawkish tone, implying a pause in rate cuts in January next year.

2. JPMorgan: The statement wording may be adjusted to "focus on the magnitude and timing of further adjustments," which would be a subtle change hinting at a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings.

3. Wells Fargo: It is expected that the statement will signal a further raising of the threshold for rate cuts and imply that "keeping rates unchanged" is the current assumption of a majority of committee members.

Voting Dissent

1. BNY Mellon: The dot plot is likely to confirm recent internal FOMC divergences in policy stance, with expectations of significant divergence among members on the 2026 policy direction.

2. JPMorgan: It is expected that this meeting will see at least two votes against rate cuts, advocating for a hold stance, and one vote calling for a larger rate cut. The dot plot is expected to show two more rate cuts over the next two years.

3. FP Markets: This meeting may see dissenters holding a hawkish stance, such as Schmieding, Guha, Mullahy, and Powell. If rates are cut this week, it is expected that there will be another cut next year.

Powell's Statement

1. Bank of America: Powell may avoid giving a clear hawkish guidance, and communication strategy may revolve around real rates or data dependency.

2. Danske Bank: It is expected that Powell will continue the attitude from the October meeting, clearly expressing opposition to market expectations of continued rate cuts.

3. Deutsche Bank: Powell is expected to emphasize that the threshold for further rate cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a temporary pause in rate cuts.

4. Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder: It is expected that Powell will articulate the rate cut in a similar way to the last press conference, warning the market not to assume that the Fed will continue to cut rates.

5. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that Powell will suggest that the phase of monetary policy adjustment has ended, and any future actions will be based on incremental meeting assessments and the latest data.

Others

1. Bank of America: The Fed is expected to announce starting in January, the purchase of Treasury securities with maturities of one year or less at a pace of $45 billion per month as part of "reserve management operations."

2. Wells Fargo: It is expected that no decision will be made on "reserve management operations" at this meeting, but the inclination is to announce the launch of the plan at the March meeting. (FX678)