Buy Crypto- Markets
Futures- Spot
- Copy Trade
- Earn
- More
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Remains Low, But Hints at More Upside for BTC Price
By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/10 01:00:12
0
Share
Bitcoin (BTC) price soared 7.33% on May 8, setting up a daily high of $104,175. In total, BTC has soared nearly 22% since April 21. Despite this sudden spike and millions in liquidations, BTC’s 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) remains around 48 for the ninth day. BTC price today trades at $102,855.0 on 3 PM. In the past 24 hours, BTC is up 2.36% with a daily high of $103,890.0 on May 9. Volmex’s 30-day Implied Volatility for Bitcoin (BVIV) hovers around 48. Since implied volatility is annualized, Bitcoin’s daily percentage price swing would be 2.52%, obtained by dividing BVIV by the square root of 365, since BTC trades all year round. Multiplying 2.52% with the BTC’s current value shows that Bitcoin price could swing roughly $2,619 in either direction today. Bitcoin price prediction based on 30-day IV suggests that the upper and lower limits for Bitcoin (BTC) today would be $106.5k and $101.3k, respectively. What’s next for the BTC price? While using 30D BVIV to predict today’s average Bitcoin price range is good, we can take this a step further. Averaging the IV for multiple timeframes can help forecast short-term tops and bottoms for BTC. The logic behind this outlook is that spikes in IV are often caused by demand in short-dated options, which leads to traders getting caught on the wrong side. The blue line shows average IV standard deviation lines on either side. A spike in BVIV above a standard deviation of +2 signals inflated IVs and hints reversal. On the contrary, a drop in IVs below the -2 standard deviation would indicate that a bullish reversal is next. Plotting these buy and sell signals on the chart shows a decent success rate of predicting cycle tops and bottoms for BTC price. The indicator shows low IVs despite BTC’s climb to $104k. This implies that the investors are likely sidelined. It also hints that the chances of BTC’s price continuing on this uptrend are high, potentially reaching ATHs. On the four-hour chart, this signal becomes noisy. Regardless, the BVIV has tagged the +1.5 standard deviation band, signaling overheating and a potential short-term correction or consolidation. To conclude, the outlook for Bitcoin price remains bullish as ever, with the ATH just inches away. Investors must remain cautious and not euphoric since altcoins have yet to break out and rally as BTC did. So, there are plenty of opportunities in the crypto market. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Bitcoin’s current price is around $103,463, with a 4.3% increase from yesterday. Based on the 30-day Implied Volatility, Bitcoin’s price could swing roughly $2,619 in either direction today, with predicted upper and lower limits of $106,500 and $101,300, respectively. The recent surge may be attributed to market front-running Trump’s announcement, which caused a 7.33% increase in Bitcoin’s price. ✓ Share: Akash Girimath Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts. A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise. Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation. Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss. Source: https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-implied-volatility-remains-low-hints-upside-for-btc-price/
You may also like
Atkins Marks One-Year Anniversary at SEC: Crypto Regulation Shifts from ‘Enforcement Heavy’ to ‘Rulemaking Mode’
Before the bill is passed, the SEC's cryptocurrency regulatory framework remains in a transition state of "administrative guidance + enforcement actions."
Under Political Pressure, Is the Federal Reserve Still Independent?
Powell believes that political pressure is not a threat, and what truly determines the Fed's independence is the Fed itself.
Yellen's Past Remarks: How Will This Incoming "Fed Chair" Disrupt the Federal Reserve? Janet Yellen, who is expected to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, has made several significant statements in the past regarding monetary policy, financ...
Powell's reform blueprint not only looks bold and ambitious, but also directly targets many vulnerabilities of the Federal Reserve. Facing the upcoming Senate confirmation hearing, how will this Fed's presumptive new "helmsman" reshape the future of the world's largest central bank?
ZachXBT vs. RAVE: Is a “Clean” Market Really What Speculators Want?
While cleaning up manipulation, it may also involve cleaning up liquidity
Arbitrum Poses as Hacker, 'Steals' Back Money Lost by KelpDAO
Even though Arbitrum wielded the admin key, the battle is far from over.
Without Cook's Apple, Can it Still Grow in the AI Era?
The iPhone Remains at its Peak, But Apple is at a Turning Point
Saylor's Bitcoin Holdings Surpass BlackRock, How Does This "Bitcoin Financing Machine" STRC Work?
Funding Cap is not equal to Execution Path; whether Bitcoin can cooperate is the true variable.
What Is RWA? What Is RWA in Crypto (Complete 2026 Guide)
Wondering what is RWA in crypto? We explain what RWA is, break down RWA tokenization in simple no-jargon terms, and cover why it's 2026's hottest crypto narrative.
What Is the KelpDAO Attack? What It Means for Aave Users in 2026
KelpDAO suffered a $292M rsETH exploit on April 18, 2026, triggering Aave market freezes and $13B DeFi outflows. Here’s what happened, whether Aave is safe now, and what users should do next.
Is your gold really "within reach"? The geographical blind spots of custodial services behind tokenized gold
When "complete physical support" does not equal "truly desirable," the risks are just beginning to emerge.
Cook Passes the Baton, Anthropic Gears Up | Rewire News Morning Brief
In the window of AI reshaping the hardware landscape, Apple has chosen a Maker
Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Again? Tonight's Data Is Key
Citi believes geopolitical turbulence is temporary and the rate cut trajectory remains unchanged. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank warns that the policy has reached a neutral stance, with no interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future.
The person taking over Apple has to do something he has never done before
Software, AI, services—areas he never directly controlled in his 25-year Apple career
Why Are You Always Losing Money on Polymarket? Because You're Betting on News, While The Rulebook Favors Insiders
At Polymarket, most people who bet incorrectly are not wrong in their prediction but rather in not having read the rules carefully.
Not a Price Hike, but a Supply Shortage? Oil Price Has Crossed the Threshold
A $95 Per Barrel Price Is Far From Enough to Rebalance the Oil Market
a16z: 5 Ways Blockchain Helps AI Agent Infrastructure
Artificial intelligence makes scaling cost-effective, but it is difficult to establish trust. Cryptocurrency can rebuild trust on a large scale.
Morning News | The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced the regulatory framework for secondary market trading of tokenized investment products; Strategy increased its holdings by 34,164 bitcoins last week; KAIO completed a strategic fi...
Overview of Important Market Events on April 20
What Is an XRP Wallet? The Best Wallets to Store XRP (2026 Updated)
An XRP wallet lets you safely store, send, and receive XRP on the XRP Ledger. Learn what wallets support XRP and discover the best XRP wallets for beginners and long-term holders in 2026.
Atkins Marks One-Year Anniversary at SEC: Crypto Regulation Shifts from ‘Enforcement Heavy’ to ‘Rulemaking Mode’
Before the bill is passed, the SEC's cryptocurrency regulatory framework remains in a transition state of "administrative guidance + enforcement actions."
Under Political Pressure, Is the Federal Reserve Still Independent?
Powell believes that political pressure is not a threat, and what truly determines the Fed's independence is the Fed itself.
Yellen's Past Remarks: How Will This Incoming "Fed Chair" Disrupt the Federal Reserve? Janet Yellen, who is expected to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, has made several significant statements in the past regarding monetary policy, financ...
Powell's reform blueprint not only looks bold and ambitious, but also directly targets many vulnerabilities of the Federal Reserve. Facing the upcoming Senate confirmation hearing, how will this Fed's presumptive new "helmsman" reshape the future of the world's largest central bank?
ZachXBT vs. RAVE: Is a “Clean” Market Really What Speculators Want?
While cleaning up manipulation, it may also involve cleaning up liquidity
Arbitrum Poses as Hacker, 'Steals' Back Money Lost by KelpDAO
Even though Arbitrum wielded the admin key, the battle is far from over.
Without Cook's Apple, Can it Still Grow in the AI Era?
The iPhone Remains at its Peak, But Apple is at a Turning Point
App