Bitcoin Faces Mixed Signals Ahead of September FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin (BTC) is receiving mixed signals ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations for a freeze in interest rates and a rise in long-term Treasury yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 2026, and a press conference along with economic projections is also scheduled after the meeting. At the FOMC meeting on July 29, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. In a survey conducted from August 12 to 17, 94 out of 104 economists expected rates to remain unchanged at the September meeting, and about 80% anticipated no changes in rates by the end of the year. As of August 14, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was 4.68%, and the 30-year yield was 5.24%. On August 18, the 30-year yield rose to 5.327%, marking the highest level since 2007. The rise in long-term rates could put pressure on non-interest-bearing risk assets like Bitcoin. AMBCrypto analyzed Bitcoin's movements around the FOMC decision date, noting that a bearish reversal was observed around past meetings. The September FOMC meeting is unlikely to be viewed as a simple interest rate event, and even if a freeze in rates is expected, the dot plot and the rise in long-term rates could still impact risk assets.

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