As Long-Term Bitcoin Investor Supply Increases, Short-Term Whales' Profit Reaches $9.07 Billion

As Bitcoin's price volatility declines to historically low levels, on-chain data indicates that the supply held by long-term investors is increasing. However, the profit of short-term whales has reached a record $9.07 billion, suggesting that selling pressure due to profit realization may rise. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode noted that the explanatory power of long-term investor supply in accounting for changes in Bitcoin's realized volatility is stronger than other indicators. The explanatory power of long-term investor supply has reached approximately 19-20%. In contrast, the explanatory power of market capitalization remains at about 3-3.5%. The accumulation of more Bitcoin in the hands of infrequent traders reduces the supply available for trading in the market, thereby limiting price movements. However, this balance may not be permanent. A shift towards selling by long-term investors could lead to a rapid increase in volatility. The rise in profits among short-term large investors is noteworthy. According to CryptoQuant, the profits of short-term Bitcoin whales have reached $9.07 billion. This situation could increase the likelihood of profit-taking sales. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted a positive on-chain signal during the limited pullback following Bitcoin's rise above $80,000. The share of Bitcoin held for more than six months in total supply has increased, reflecting a transition of short-term investors into the long-term investor category. Darkfost stated that this supply, with lower liquidity, could create a more solid support base.

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