Analysis: The surrender period for Bitcoin miners is nearing its end, which may indicate that the price of Bitcoin has bottomed out

According to market news, Glassnode data shows that the hash ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three-month miner capitulation period, which is one of the longest miner capitulation periods in history. When the 30-day moving average of hash rate rises above the 60-day moving average, it will trigger a recovery signal, indicating that miners are coming back online and network pressure is easing.

Since the first reversal of this indicator last November, Bitcoin has fallen from around $90,000 to a low of $60,000 in early February, and is currently rebounding to around $65,000. The hash ribbon indicator is based on the comparison of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash rate. Miner capitulation occurs when mining revenue falls below operational costs, leading inefficient miners to shut down and sell off their Bitcoin reserves, resulting in a decrease in hash rate and increased market selling pressure. Historically, such capitulations often coincide with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is below the estimated average production cost of $66,000, which last occurred in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed around $15,500.