Analysis: Multiple Factors Contribute to the Market Experiencing its First Positive Net Liquidity Environment Since Early 2022

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/04 12:15:56

BlockBeats News, December 4th, Cryptocurrency market research firm Delphi Digital posted on social media that the Fed's interest rate path next year is the clearest in years. A 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.5%-3.75%. The forward curve predicts at least three more rate cuts in 2026, and if the path holds, rates will fall to around 3% by the end of the year.

However, rate cuts are just part of the story. Quantitative tightening (QT) ended on December 1st. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is planned to gradually draw down rather than refill. Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP) have been fully absorbed. These factors have together created the first positive net liquidity environment since early 2022.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Federal Funds Rate have fallen back to the high end of the 3% range. Real rates have also retreated from their peak in 2023-2024. However, there has not been a collapse, but rather a controlled slowdown, indicating a deliberate policy pivot rather than a sudden U-turn.

2026 will be a year where policy shifts from headwinds to modest tailwinds. This environment favors long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets backed by structural demand.

-- Price

AI has become critical infrastructure, and governments and corporations are competing to control it. Centralized development and regulation are entrenching existing power structures. The Web3 community is building a decentralized alternative — distributed compute, token incentives, and community governance — before that window closes.

Vitalik wrote a proposal teaching you how to secretly use AI large models

Vitalik believes that in the AI era, users should not have to give up their identity to use an AI tool.

On the eve of the explosion of on-chain options

Options are becoming a new anchor in the cryptocurrency market.

WEEX AI Hackathon: How Did This AI Trading Winner Succeed?

A self-taught AI trading enthusiast achieved top-10 results at the WEEX AI Hackathon. Learn about the mindset, AI tools, and lessons behind this impressive performance.

One Balance to Rule Them All: Gravitas' On-Chain Prime Broker Ambition

Forty years ago, a technological revolution broke the isolation of information, reshaping Wall Street. Forty years later, Grvt aims to break the isolation of capital with an on-chain prime brokerage model.

That person who cashed out at the NFT peak is now selling a new shovel in the OpenClaw craze

A skilled person never picks the table, they eat meat with every bite.

Inter-generational Prisoner's Dilemma Resolution: The Nomadic Capital and Bitcoin's Inevitable Path

When the Baby Boomer generation collectively sells off, who will be the "bag holder" in the next asset crash?

Upstream and downstream are starting to fight, all for the sake of everyone being able to "Lobster"

「Lobster」 may not be a mature product yet, but it has already ushered in a new era of 「AI Assistants」.

Circle and Mastercard Announce Partnership, the Next Stage for the Crypto Industry Belongs to Payments

Stablecoins are transitioning from a speculative tool to real financial scenarios such as payments, cross-border transfers, and store of value.

From 5 Mao per kWh of Chinese electricity to a $45 API export: Tokens are rewriting currency units

When the same unit can both measure hashing power and facilitate payments, it ceases to be just a term and begins to evolve into a new currency of both value and influence.