Analysis: Ethereum ETF Inflows Do Not Equate to Spot Market Buying Pressure, Traditional Fund Preferences Overlay Futures Portfolio Strategy

BlockBeats News, September 9th. On-chain data analyst Murphy published an article analyzing whether "ETF Net Inflows Equal Genuine Buying Pressure." Since the launch of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, the inflow/outflow of their funds has become one of the most closely watched indicators in the market. In general, inflows are seen as a signal of ongoing accumulation by institutional investors. Whether the net inflow of ETFs can directly represent genuine buying demand differs in the case of BTC and ETH, the two mainstream assets.

Analyzing BTC's CME open interest and ETF holdings changes, it is evident that the price increase of BTC (black line rising) is highly correlated with ETF net inflows (red line trending up). In contrast, the magnitude of change in CME futures open interest (yellow bars) is much smaller than that of ETFs. This indicates that the primary way traditional funds allocate to BTC is by directly buying spot ETFs to gain investment exposure, rather than establishing leverage or arbitrage positions through futures. The significant price increase of BTC is largely driven by genuine spot buying demand, and traditional fund entry is more inclined to long-term holding.

Analyzing ETH's CME open interest and ETF holdings changes reveals that the price increase of ETH (black line rising) also correlates with ETF inflows (blue line trending up). However, unlike BTC, the change in ETH's futures open interest (purple bars) rises in sync and constitutes a larger proportion, sometimes even exceeding half of ETF inflows. This indicates that traditional funds on ETH employ more of a combination strategy involving spot and futures, including:

Basis Arbitrage: Buying spot ETFs while simultaneously shorting futures to earn the basis spread (direction-neutral);

Directional Trading: But not exclusively relying on ETF spot exposure like BTC.