Analysis: Bitcoin has fallen back to $71,000, and the renewed tensions in Hormuz are suppressing risk appetite
According to The Block, after the rebound driven by the ceasefire in the Middle East faded, btc-42">Bitcoin hovered around $71,000, while Ethereum was around $2,190, and the overall cryptocurrency market weakened simultaneously. Analysts pointed out that the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and the escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have caused the market to revert to the macro trading logic of "rising oil prices - increasing inflation expectations - declining risk appetite."
Institutions believe that Bitcoin faces significant resistance around $74,000, compounded by crude oil returning above $100, putting pressure on capital risk appetite. However, most opinions suggest that the current pullback has not yet evolved into panic selling. Data shows that last week, the spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows, and the scale of forced liquidations was significantly lower than the levels in the first quarter, indicating that the market's ability to absorb shocks has improved.
Structurally, there is still strong selling pressure in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, with about 13.5 million addresses in a state of unrealized losses, limiting upside potential. At the same time, the scale of open futures contracts has decreased by more than 50% from the peak in 2025, showing that the previous excessive leverage has been somewhat cleared, and the market structure is becoming healthier. Bitcoin currently resembles a macro asset rather than an independent market, with its movements still highly dependent on inflation and liquidity conditions. In the context of rising inflation in the US and cautious monetary policy, Bitcoin may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.
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