6 Major Global Institutions 2025 Outlook: AI Boom Continues, Key Year for Exploring Alpha

By: blockbeats|2024/12/30 20:45:05
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Original Author: Stoic
Original Translation: DeepTech TechFlow

Distill the core views of top global institutions for you, saving you time reading hundreds of pages of reports.

Data Source: J.P. Morgan, Blackrock, Deutsche Wealth, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.

1. J.P. Morgan's Core Views

· Global Economic Growth: It is expected that global economy will continue to grow by 2025, but China's economy may experience significant slowing.

· Stock Market Forecast: The S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6500 points, but global stock markets may show divergence.

Global Market Outlook

In the coming months, market trends will be influenced by the interaction of macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, while policy changes by the new U.S. administration will also bring uncertainty.

Technological innovation, especially the 'Continuation of the AI Boom,' will be a key driver of the market.

Interest Rate Outlook

The baseline forecast suggests that global economic growth is resilient, but the persistence of inflation will limit further monetary policy easing in 2025.

However, the new Trump administration may bring risks, such as overly aggressive trade and immigration policies that could impact the supply side and dent global market confidence.

Baseline Scenario Forecast

· Strong global economic growth.

· Positive outlook for U.S. stocks and gold, but the prospects for oil and base metals are not optimistic.

6 Major Global Institutions 2025 Outlook: AI Boom Continues, Key Year for Exploring Alpha

2. Blackrock's Core Views

· Unique Market Environment: The current market is in a unique phase, where long-term assets exhibit unusually strong reactions to short-term events.

· Investment Strategy: Bullish on risk assets, further overweighting U.S. stocks as the 'AI theme is rapidly expanding'.

· Inflation and Interest Rates: It is expected that inflation and interest rates will remain at levels higher than pre-pandemic.

2025 Market Outlook

· Inflation Pressure: Due to intensified geopolitical divisions and accelerated spending on "AI infrastructure development and low-carbon transformation," inflation pressure is expected to persist.

· Fed Policy: The Fed is unlikely to significantly cut interest rates, and rates are not expected to drop below 4%.

· Long-Term Bond Yields: Given budget deficits, sticky inflation, and increased market volatility, investors may require a higher risk premium, leading to a rise in long-term government bond yields.

Key Investment Themes

· AI-Driven Investment Craze: The AI race will continue to drive market investments.

· U.S. Stocks to Continue Outperforming: U.S. stocks are expected to continue their strong performance, but investors need to be flexible in response to market changes.

· Monitoring Risk Signals: Signals such as a surge in long-term bond yields or escalated trade protectionism could be key triggers for adjusting investment strategies.

3. Deutsche Wealth's Core Views

In a backdrop of an "economically challenging environment," inflation may remain high due to "increased fiscal spending and potential tariff hikes."

"This will limit central banks' room to stimulate the economy through rate cuts, forcing them to seek a balance between growth and inflation control. This uncertainty could alter market expectations and trigger more volatility than in 2024. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts triggered by changes in trade policies could further exacerbate market instability."

Asset Allocation Themes

· The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, with steady economic growth and robust investment.

· Focus on growth stocks, but be cautious of high volatility risks.

· Corporate profit growth and large-scale stock buybacks will benefit the U.S. stock market.

Investment Advice:

- Focus on the long-term positive trend of economic growth.

- Consider adopting a diversified investment portfolio and actively manage risks.

Key Points Overview

· Despite geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to edge up from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025-26.

· While short-term growth prospects have improved, the growth of most economies globally remains below the average level of the 2010s.

· Global inflation is expected to slowly decline, averaging 3.5% in 2025. Central banks may remain cautious in their accommodative policies.

· Risks such as geopolitical conflicts and climate disasters continue to exist, with a greater impact on vulnerable economies.

· Policy recommendations include supporting green and digital transformation, promoting debt relief, and enhancing food security.

4. World Bank Group 2025 Outlook Highlights

· Despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, global economic growth is expected to remain at 2.6% in 2024. By 2025-2026, with a gradual recovery in trade and investment, this growth rate may slightly increase to 2.7%.

· While short-term growth prospects have improved, overall performance remains weak. During 2024-2025, nearly 60% of the world's economies are projected to grow at rates lower than the average level of the 2010s, accounting for over 80% of global output and population.

· The global inflation easing is expected to be slower than previously anticipated, with an average inflation rate of 3.5% this year. Due to lingering inflationary pressures, central banks may exercise more caution in easing monetary policies.

· Recent multiple shocks have caused many emerging markets and developing economies to stagnate in catching up with advanced economies. Data shows that nearly half of EMDEs underperformed compared to advanced economies during 2020-2024. The future prospects are even bleaker for those fragile economies heavily impacted by conflicts.

· Despite a somewhat balanced risk picture, downside risks still dominate overall. Key risks include:

- Continued geopolitical tensions.

- Further global trade fragmentation.

- Sustained high interest rates coupled with persistent inflationary pressures.

-Frequent occurrence of natural disasters related to climate change.

· To address the above challenge, global policies need to focus on the following aspects:

-Maintaining the stability of the international trade system.

-Promoting green and digital transformation to support economic sustainability.

-Providing debt relief support to help alleviate the pressure on highly indebted countries.

-Improving food security issues, especially in fragile economies.

· For emerging markets and developing economies, high debt and its servicing costs pose a severe challenge. These countries need to find a balance between meeting significant investment needs and maintaining fiscal sustainability.

· To achieve long-term economic and social development goals, countries need to take the following policy measures:

-Increase productivity growth to drive economic efficiency.

-Improve the efficiency of public investments to ensure proper fund utilization.

-Enhance human capital development, such as education and skills training.

-Narrow the gender gap in the labor market and increase female labor force participation.

5. Goldman Sachs Key Insights

「2025: The Key Year for Exploring Excess Returns」

· The simultaneous occurrence of interest rate declines and economic growth may favor the stock market.

· Current stock valuations are nearing highs, and future earnings growth will be a key driver of the market.

· Since October 2023, global stock markets have risen by 40%, making the market more susceptible to negative news.

· The S&P 500 index has had one of the strongest rallies since 1928, with the Nasdaq index rising over 50%, and NVIDIA seeing a surge of up to 264%. This trend is mainly driven by expectations of "peak inflation" and a "shift in Fed policy."

· The increase in price-to-earnings ratios has brought stock and credit valuations to historic highs, especially with the performance in European and Chinese markets nearing long-term average levels, no longer in undervalued territory.

· Although stock valuations are high, this does not completely suppress the possibility of further upside. However, high valuations may exert some pressure on future returns.

· Large US tech companies have performed well, primarily benefiting from strong profit growth. Their valuation levels reflect their solid fundamentals rather than market hype.

Risk Analysis

The report mentions two key risks:

1. The recent optimism in the market has already priced in some of the future returns, making the market more vulnerable to correction.

2. There are still many unknown factors regarding tariff risks, which may introduce uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategy of "diversifying investments and achieving alpha" to address these risks.

The specific strategies include:

· Broadening the investment scope to include more asset classes;

· Seeking potential value investment opportunities;

· Achieving geographical investment diversification to mitigate risks.

6. Market Outlook from Morgan Stanley

Key Themes

1. High Market Valuations Morgan Stanley believes that current market valuations are generally high, and most investors no longer see asset prices as cheap. Therefore, it is recommended to prioritize generating alpha through optimizing asset allocation and investment selection, rather than relying solely on overall market returns (beta).

2. Bull Market Entering Optimistic Phase The market is entering the "optimistic phase" of the bull market, which is usually the late stage of a bull market, followed by a possible "euphoria phase," just before a bear market. Morgan Stanley states that "the market performance in 2025 is still expected to be promising."

3. Impact of Generative AI on the Private Market The potential impact of Generative AI on the private market is considered one of the key themes for 2025. The rapid development of this technology may bring new opportunities and challenges to private equity investments.

Summary and Recommendations

From the perspectives of major institutions, some common trends and themes can be identified, such as high market valuations, the impact of AI technology, and the importance of diversified investments. These insights can serve as references for investors when formulating strategies.

It is important to note that these perspectives are not absolute truths but rather provide different viewpoints for investors to compare and analyze.

If this content receives enough attention, I plan to write an article specifically discussing the cryptocurrency market outlook. If there are any other noteworthy reports or materials from research institutions, please feel free to recommend them to me as I am very keen to further research.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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