$2.6 Billion ETF Inflow: A Different Story from Direct Usage

From August 17 to 21, a total of $2.6104 billion (approximately 3.6154 trillion KRW) flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs. While funds are returning, analysts suggest that it is difficult to say that the number of users directly using wallets on-chain has returned at the same pace.

According to data from Fisad Investors, the U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.9178 billion (approximately 2.6562 trillion KRW) during this period. The net inflow for the ETH spot ETF was $692.6 million (approximately 959.3 billion KRW) in the same timeframe. Although the flow of BTC and ETH ETFs indicates a return of funds, it is a different metric from the increase in wallet creation or on-chain transactions.

The first axis of this change is the shift from self-custody wallets to custodial financial products. In the past, individual participants entered the market by creating exchange accounts and installing wallets to send funds directly. Now, the pathway to exposure to BTC and ETH prices has widened through ETFs without the need for wallets.

As of August 17, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) recorded net assets of $48.03357119 billion (approximately 66.5265 trillion KRW). While the exposure to spot BTC has increased as it enters traditional financial accounts, this flow does not directly lead to an increase in on-chain addresses or the use of network fees.

The second axis is the changing nature of stablecoins. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported in a 2026 report that the global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $4.4 trillion (approximately 609.4 trillion KRW) by October 2025, before dropping to $2.6 trillion (approximately 360.1 trillion KRW) by April 2026. The same report noted that the market capitalization of the top five stablecoins reached nearly $300 billion (approximately 415.5 trillion KRW) by March 25, 2026, and that Asia accounted for about 30% of global stablecoin trading activity in 2025.

Stablecoins can no longer be explained solely as idle funds within exchanges. Visa reported that global stablecoin supply exceeds $272 billion (approximately 376.72 trillion KRW), with an adjusted trading volume of $10.2 trillion (approximately 1.4127 quadrillion KRW) over the past 12 months. Compared to the World Bank's reported global average remittance cost of 6.36%, the potential for stablecoin payments and remittances could be discussed in regions with high remittance costs.

However, risks have also increased. Chainalysis reported that stablecoins accounted for 84% of illegal on-chain transaction volume in 2025. Since the same tools are used for both legal payments and illegal fund transfers, it is difficult to conclude that merely expanding market size has led to healthier usage patterns.

The third axis is the payment infrastructure for AI agents. Coinbase announced that through x402, developers and AI agents can pay for APIs and service fees in stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) in an HTTP environment. Google Cloud introduced AP2, proposing a standard for agent-based payments.

However, AI agent payments are still closer to the stage of building payment rails than to widespread adoption. There is limited data proving the actual scale of agent payments with publicly available authoritative statistics. The previously reported trends of building dedicated wallets and payment infrastructure for AI agents also lead to areas that need to address identity verification and user control issues.

The fourth axis is the expansion of institutional channels. In a 2025 survey by Bitwise and VettaFi, 22% of advisors reported allocating cryptocurrency to client accounts. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) analyzed that while rising Bitcoin prices increase new user inflows, it is likely that 73-81% of early investors have incurred losses.

This indicates that price increases do not necessarily equate to a healthy expansion of the user base. While funds entering through institutional accounts and ETFs enhance market accessibility, they are distinct from the trend of individuals directly using blockchain services. The forms of market participation are broadening while becoming more indirect.

The developer base has not completely disappeared. Electric Capital's dashboard shows that as of August 2026, there are approximately 29,000 monthly active developers and 9,500 full-time developers. While the expression "people have left" may be exaggerated, it is possible to interpret that the market's focus is shifting from community participation and direct usage to financial products, payment infrastructure, and institutional funds.

Industry optimism is aligned with regulatory clarification and institutional integration. Coinbase Institutional views regulatory clarity and institutional integration as key trends in its 2026 outlook, while CoinShares emphasizes the combination of stablecoins, tokenization, and on-chain applications.

On the other hand, there are concerns about individual losses and illegal usage. When looking at data from BIS and Chainalysis together, it is evident that while the market grows, the risks of loss and illegal fund transfers may also increase. The changes in the cryptocurrency market in 2026 can be seen as a phase where maturity and risk accumulation are occurring simultaneously rather than a simple recovery.

Ultimately, the recent ETF net inflow figures indicate the need to distinguish between direct on-chain usage and indirect participation through financial products in the cryptocurrency market in 2026. ETFs represent investment accounts, stablecoins facilitate payments and remittances, and AI agent payment infrastructure expands the initial rails for machine-to-machine transactions. Direct on-chain usage and indirect participation through financial products should not be interpreted as the same metric.

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